Federal Election: Narrow Labor win predicted tomorrow

The Queensland Times - 25 June 2010

Ipswich City Councillor Paul Tully is Ipswich's most qualified psephologist - a person who studies and predicts the result of elections.
In 2007, Tully accurately predicted the federal election result down to the exact number of seats Labor won.

FEDERAL ELECTION 2010

This election is likely to be the most-closely contested election since 1961 when Liberal Prime Minister Bob Menzies was returned with a 1 seat working majority after Jim Killen was re-elected as the Liberal Member for the Brisbane seat of Moreton after securing Communist Party preferences.  Menzies was reported as ringing Killen and declaring: "Killen, you're magnificent".

In 2010, there has been a myriad of polls, predictions and pundits' pontifications – some differing wildly, including today's Newspoll in The Australian showing the two parties locked on 50:50 two-party preferred vote.  But there are several key indicia which enable some reasonably confident observations and predictions to be made.

In 2007, Centrebet betting correctly showed Labor would win the election.

As at 7.00am today, Centrebet.com.au had the ALP at $1.33 and the Coalition at $3.25, an overnight lengthening of Labor's odds of winning the election

The bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro in New South Wales, on the outskirts of the ACT, traditionally elects a local member who is a member of the party which forms the Federal Government. The incumbent ALP Member Mike Kelly was quoted at 7.00am today by Centrebet at $1.22 whereas his Liberal opponent David Gazard is quoted at $3.85.  If the people of Eden-Monaro re-elect Mike Kelly, its bellwether status suggests Julia Gillard is on her way to The Lodge.

In 2007, Centrebet favourites won 144 of the nation's 150 electorates and there is no reason to think that the smart money is not following the winners again in 2010.

Malcolm Mackerras' Pendulum should never be overlooked in making predictions about the outcome of any Australian election.  His pendulum is based on the fact that swings across Australia are never uniform but higher (and lower) than expected swings tend to cancel each other out, thus making each party's overall percentage an excellent barometer of that party's final number of seats.

NOW FOR MY PREDICTION FOR 2010

This is the toughest election to predict since I correctly forecast the 1974 debacle in Queensland when Labor was reduced to a cricket team of 11 in the Queensland Parliament after the Labor leader Percy Tucker was humiliated by Premier Joh Bjelke-Petersen. Percy also lost his own Townsville-based seat.

Tomorrow, Labor will lose a significant number of seats in Queensland and New South Wales.  Labor may pick up a handful of seats in Victoria but the status quo is generally likely to prevail in Tasmania, South Australia, Western Australia, the ACT and the Northern Territory.

Things can always change over the next 24 hours but I predict that Labor will win the 2010 election and that the 150 seats in the House of Representatives will be won as follows:

ALP 77

Liberal/National 70

Independents 3

or

ALP 76

Liberal/National 70

Independents 3

Greens 1.

After supplying the Speaker, Labor would have either a 3 seat majority on the floor of the House of Representatives in the first scenario or a 1 seat majority in the second scenario.

Assuming Labor wins by a small margin, as Menzies did in 1961, it would be tempting for the Coalition to think that the 2013 election would be a walk-in for them.

That's what the ALP thought after the 1961 election but Menzies called a general election a year early in 1963 and INCREASED his Liberal/National Party majority and the Coalition then went on to hold power for another 9 years!

 In Queensland, I predict The Greens will wins their first Senate seat.

WHAT IS PSEPHOLOGY?

"Psephology" is the art or science of predicting the outcome of elections.  Psephologists across the world are doing this every day.  In reality, everyone is a psephologist.  In practice, it is neither an art nor a science but simply a judgment by each individual, based on polls, figures, trends, hunches, good luck and sometimes plain old political bias.

Good luck to you for tomorrow night in your own practice of psephology.

Cr Paul Tully
PaulGTully@gmail.com

20 August 2010

Tony Abbott admits campaign trail can be depressing: Wait until Saturday night Tony!

 
TONY Abbott revealed today he has been "depressed" at times during the campaign and that he doesn't want to give up surfing and triathlons if he becomes prime minister.
 
As Mr Abbott joined journalists on the bus to the marginal seat of Petrie, he sat on a wobbly seat.
 
"Gee it's hard to find a safe seat," he joked:
 
"Sometimes you think this is a bit depressing because you're all human, even senior politicians are human - you're subject to the usual range of emotions."
 
The admissions came as he mounted a marathon nonstop effort to win power.
 
"Margie (his wife) has said a few times whatever happens what an amazing thing to have experienced to be a party leader and go through an election campaign," he revealed.
 
Mr Abbott said his best moment of the campaign so far was the Rooty Hill people's forum last week.
 
He said he understood prime ministers had tough time demands but he wished to continue his rigorous exercise regime.
 
"I would be incredibly disappointed if I couldn't still be involved in a bit of sport because everyone's got to have some recreation - even prime ministers - and for me physical exercise has always been a great form of recreation," he said.
 
"It's stress relief apart from anything else.
 
"Cycling is a very social sport, surfing is a very social sport. Something like an ironman or a half ironman - ok, it's very gruelling, but it is actually a community event.
 
"I don't see why you would be precluded from attending community events. So I'm not ruling it in but I'm not ruling it out."
 
CourierMail.com.au

Campaign trail can be depressing, Tony Abbott admits: Wait until Saturday night Tony!

 

TONY Abbott revealed today he has been "depressed" at times during the campaign and that he doesn't want to give up surfing and triathlons if he becomes prime minister.

 

As Mr Abbott joined journalists on the bus to the marginal seat of Petrie, he sat on a wobbly seat.

 

"Gee it's hard to find a safe seat," he joked:

 

"Sometimes you think this is a bit depressing because you're all human, even senior politicians are human - you're subject to the usual range of emotions."

 

The admissions came as he mounted a marathon nonstop effort to win power.

 

"Margie (his wife) has said a few times whatever happens what an amazing thing to have experienced to be a party leader and go through an election campaign," he revealed.

 

Mr Abbott said his best moment of the campaign so far was the Rooty Hill people's forum last week.

 

He said he understood prime ministers had tough time demands but he wished to continue his rigorous exercise regime.

 

"I would be incredibly disappointed if I couldn't still be involved in a bit of sport because everyone's got to have some recreation - even prime ministers - and for me physical exercise has always been a great form of recreation," he said.

 

"It's stress relief apart from anything else.

 

"Cycling is a very social sport, surfing is a very social sport. Something like an ironman or a half ironman - ok, it's very gruelling, but it is actually a community event.

 

"I don't see why you would be precluded from attending community events. So I'm not ruling it in but I'm not ruling it out."

 

CourierMail.com.au

2Day FM does it again: Kyle Sandilands proves himself a despicable upper class dog

Controversial radio host Kyle Sandilands has struck again, urging Prime Minister Julia Gillard to give up living in the outer Melbourne suburb of Altona because it is a "rathole".

 

Ms Gillard was coy when asked by co-host Jackie O in an interview on 2Day FM how long it would be before she moved into The Lodge if she won the election.

 

"I haven't thought about any of that," she said.

 

"I'm really not sure. I'm happy in Altona."

 

Responding to Sandilands's comment, Ms Gillard said: "Altona's OK. it's not a rathole."

 

After toppling Kevin Rudd in June, Ms Gillard said she would not move into The Lodge, the prime minister's official Canberra residence, until she had won an election in her own right.

 

In the meantime, she has been dividing her time between her modest brick house in Altona, and a flat in the Canberra suburb of Kingston.

 

BrisbaneTimes.com.au

This politician may need medical help: Barnaby Joyce frothing at the mouth over the AustralianGreens

Barnaby Joyce attacks the Australian
Greens over 'secret deals' with Labor. 

 

Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce has launched a scathing election-eve attack on the Australian Greens, who look set to hold the balance of power in the upper house after the federal election.

 

The Greens hold five Senate seats, but opinion polls have them boosting their representation to seven or eight, which would effectively give them a casting vote on contentious issues.

 

Senator Joyce told a Rural Press Club breakfast in Brisbane on Thursday that there were secret deals between the Greens and Labor that could see the reintroduction of death duties, a 50 per cent top marginal tax rate and an end to coal mining, live cattle exports, rodeos and fishing.

 

"We will see a Labor-Green deal," Senator Joyce said of a Labor victory on Saturday. "The Labor Party are only going to get about 40 per cent of the vote and if they win, they'll win (on) the Green preferences and the Greens will have every right to say: `You got there because of us and you will pay the piper and (we) will call the tune'.

 

"Death duties will come back, and Julia Gillard might say no, but it's not her choice because the Greens determine what goes through the Senate."

 

Senator Joyce said the Greens' anti-mining stance would deliver "a nation full of wind chimes and windmills".

 

He said he also feared for the future of Australia's $500 million rice industry, which exports to more than 70 countries, including many poor African nations.

 

Senator Joyce said the Labor government was unwilling to release the plan for the Murray-Darling Basin because of the Greens deal.

 

"If you take the capacity to feed 20 million people out of the top of the chain then there's someone on the bottom of the chain that doesn't get fed - somebody you haven't seen, some person living in Kenya, some person living in southern Sudan who doesn't get fed because you made the decision that you weren't going to grow rice," he said.

 

"So how many people do we want to starve to death because of this decision?

 

"What is the appropriate moral bounce? Is it appropriate that 10,000 people starve to death or maybe 20,000?"

 

BrisbaneTimes.com.au

Ipswich footbridge named after local resident and famous Australian who designed the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Brisbane's Story Bridge

 

Mayor Paul Pisasale (front) and Councillor Paul Tully
on the newly named Bradfield Bridge.

 

 

FROM unsteady beginnings, the Riverlink pedestrian bridge now has a name that carries the historical weight of Ipswich's proud past.

 

The much publicised and long-delayed bridge from Riverlink shopping centre to Ipswich City Square will be called Bradfield Bridge.

 

Ipswich City Council yesterday voted to honour former Ipswich resident John Bradfield who, if he did nothing else, would be forever famous for designing the Sydney Harbour Bridge and helping design Brisbane's Story Bridge.

 

He also helped design and plan the University of Queensland, engineered Sydney's electric railway system and was associated with engineering works including the Cataract Dam near Sydney.

 

Planning and Development Committee chairman Paul Tully said the new bridge in Ipswich was the first in Bradfield's name.

 

"It's a proud day we can recognise his achievements and his connection with the city," Cr Tully said.

 

From his Sydney home, Dr Bradfield's grandson Peter Bradfield was thrilled to hear of his grandfather's honour.

 

"I think he'd be delighted he's been so kindly remembered. He was a proud Ipswich boy," Mr Bradfield said. "His place in Sydney was full of Queensland plants and a stained-glass window from the family home in Ipswich.

 

"In 2008 I went to Ipswich and Andrew Antoniolli showed me around grandfather's junior school at North Ipswich where there was a lot of artefacts about the bridge and him.

 

"I've been asked to come up with my wife for the opening. We were going to be away at that time but I'm sure we can make it."

 

Councillor Antoniolli, who went to the same primary school as Dr Bradfield, supported the bridge being named after him.

 

"It was a long time coming but I think it's the right one," Cr Antoniolli said. "I'm very pleased with the outcome."

 

Ipswich Mayor Paul Pisasale said the official opening was expected to be in the first half of October.

 

"It's going to be a big day for celebration. There will be a community celebration and joint retail promotion on both sides of the river," he said.

 

"The Bradfield Bridge will quickly become a vital part of the city's infrastructure. This is a historic moment for the city. There's no other walking bridge like this in Australia."

QT.com.au

ANZ Insurance rips off Chinese couple in Brisbane

ANZ has done a backflip which would win spectacular awards at the Moscow Circus.

On Friday, a Brisbane Chinese couple was told by ANZ that the insurance on their home which had been destroyed by fire was void because they had taken in a boarder.

No wonder Australians think banks are disgraceful when they treat customers like dog droppings!

After a spurt of adverse television publicity, ANZ announced today that it was all a big mistake and the couple - who had been living in their car - would be paid after all.

The ANZ should have honoured the insurance last Friday - not when the sh*t hit the proverbial fan.
The couple was at its most-vulnerable immediately after the fire, yet the ANZ treated them worse than a mongrel dog should be treated.

ANZ is a disgrace and consumers should boycott this heartless, greedy corporation.

John Howard set to win 2010 Federal Election - according to Channel 9

Julia Gillard in male drag - looks amazingly like little Johnny Howard!

Maybe Mark Latham is still throwing a hammer in the works at Channel 9.

VIDEO: Wyatt Roy LNP attack on ALP supporter

VIDEO: Wyatt Roy attack

What a disgrace this attacker is to the LNP.