Election 2010 Cliffhanger

With the 2010 election a complete cliffhanger, it may not be the seat of Hasluck in Western Australia which determines the winner but the seat of Brisbane in Queensland held by the ALP's Arch Bevis since 1990.

The ALP has been steadily pulling back the LNP Teresa Gambaro's lead since Saturday night.

The 2-party preferred vote is currently:

BEVIS, Arch ALP 32,851 (49.71%)
GAMBARO, Teresa LNP 33,233 (50.29%).

Arch Bevis has been a pugnacious little fighter for 20 years and he may yet survive this battle as well.

If he pulls it off and Labor wins Corangamite in Victoria and the Liberals win Hasluck in Western Australia, the final result of the 150 seats would be:

Coalition 71
ALP 73

Greens 1

Independent NSW 2
Independent QLD 1
Independent TAS 1

"Rogue" National WA 1

The National Party candidate from Western Australia Tony Crook who defeated the Liberals' star embarrassment Wilson Tuckey in the seat of O'Connor has said he will sit on the cross benches and support neither major party.

That's why his seat needs to be taken out of the equation in calculating the number of seats won by the Coalition with 71 seats, or 72 at the most, even if the WA "rogue" National seat is included.

Julia Gillard then has the first right to attempt to form a government.

The final minority ALP government might look like this:

ALP 73
Greens 1
Ind. TAS 1
Ind. NSW 2

TOTAL 77

or

ALP 73
Greens 1
Ind TAS 1
Ind. NSW 2
Ind. QLD 1

TOTAL 78

Even if the LNP wins Brisbane, a minority ALP Government might look like:

ALP 72
Greens 1
Ind. TAS 1
Ind. NSW 2

TOTAL 76

Alternatively, a minority Coalition Government might look like:

Coalition 72
Independents 4

TOTAL 76

Under all these scenarios, stability in government would seem more likely with an ALP minority government.

The minority LNP Government scenario would have to rely on a former Green candidate from Tasmania, now an Independent or a "rogue" National from Western Australia who detests the National Party in the eastern states.

Don't give up yet Julia.

Julia Gillard could remain Prime Minister with a little help from her friends

If Labor wins 73 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, it could still cobble together a minority government.

With the help of the new Greens MP in Melbourne Adam Bandt and the likely Independent "Green" MP in the Tasmanian seat of Denison Andrew Wilkie, the Labor Government would effectively have 75 seats to the Coalition's 72.
If Bob Katter was made Speaker of the House of Representatives, Labor would control the floor of Parliament 75:74, even assuming the two Independents from NSW, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott sided with the Coalition.

Alternatively, the three Independents might accept that the ALP received a higher two-party preferred vote across Australia than the Coalition and side with Labor.

On the current figures, this would give the ALP a total of 78 seats (including 4 Independents and 1 Green) to the Coalition's 72.

This would be seen as a remarkable victory for Julia Gillard and would leave Tony Abbott reeling for the next three years.