THE risk has grown that the Tasmanian independent, Andrew Wilkie, will bring down the government if it does not clamp down on poker machines, after the rural independent Rob Oakeshott indicated he was unlikely to back any such legislation and Labor MPs with clubs in their electorates grew nervous.
The West Australian crossbencher, Tony Crook, expressed reservations about the necessary legislation while the powerful Clubs Australia lobby group prepared for the release on Monday of their $20 million advertising campaign.
The campaign, which will rival the one mounted by the mining industry last year that almost brought down the government, will begin with newspaper ads and an internet commercial that features two mates having a ''beer and a flutter'' after a long day.
The campaign will move to television and radio as the legislation is introduced as early as the end of this year.
In the internet commercial, as the two men sip their beers, one man tells the other that ''some bloke in Tassie got voted in and Gillard needs his vote and he hates pokies''.
''No way,'' responds his mate, ''a licence to have a punt, it's un-Australian.''
''What's next? They'll be telling us how many beers to have.''
''Gillard would be crazy to back that, wouldn't she?''
The Clubs Australia boss, Anthony Ball, said the ads will run for a full two years until the election, and longer if necessary.
As part of the deal to support the government, Mr Wilkie demanded legislation by 2014 that introduced mandatory pre-commitment technology on poker machines so people could limit in advance how much they could lose.
By May next year, he wants legislation passed that would give the Commonwealth the power to force the states to adopt the pre-commitment measures if they refuse.
He has cited the 2012 legislation as a key milestone. If it is not met, he will withdraw his critical one vote for the government.
But he also needs the support of three fellow Lower House crossbenchers. Tony Windsor has already expressed serious concerns and yesterday Mr Oakeshott promised a gathering of 150 club operators in his north coast electorate of Lyne that he would not do anything to harm local clubs.
Bob Katter is unlikely to support the measure while Mr Crook, despite there being no poker machines in WA, has reservations about the implications of federal intervention legislation.
