JULIA Gillard has dramatically closed in on Kevin Rudd as preferred Labor leader after the government failed to get any boost in its polling numbers from last week's budget.
The Coalition has maintained a clear primary-vote lead over Labor since the budget and kept consecutive 50 per cent or higher two-party-preferred support in Newspoll surveys for the first time in four years.
In the latest Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian, more people regard Wayne Swan's budget, in which he projected an earlier than expected return to a surplus of $1 billion in 2012, as good for the economy than bad.
There is also a cancelling-out between voters who thought they would be individually "worse off" and "better off", compared with last year's budget.
Support for the view that the budget was "good for the economy" went from 45 per cent last year to 44 per cent, and that it was "worse for the economy" fell from 33 to 31 per cent. There was also a three-percentage-point fall in those who thought they would be personally better off, from 22 per cent to 19 per cent, and a fall of three points from those who thought they would be "worse off", from 33 per cent to 30 per cent.
According to the latest Newspoll, the first taken since the budget and Tony Abbott's budget reply speech to parliament on Thursday, the Coalition's primary support remains at a four-year high of 43 per cent, with the Liberals' 40 per cent vote the highest since August 2006, when Kim Beazley was Labor leader.
Labor's primary vote went from a record low of 35 per cent before the budget to 37 per cent, resulting in a two-party-preferred vote, based on preferences at the last election, of 50 per cent to the Coalition's 50 per cent.
Despite the dramatic budget announcement of a return to surplus in 2012 - "in three years time and three years early" - dissatisfaction with the performance of Mr Rudd reached a new high of 51 per cent - compared with 50 per cent before the budget - while satisfaction remained unchanged on 39 per cent, Mr Rudd's lowest on record.
Although the Coalition has continued to stay in front of the ALP on primary vote, and net satisfaction with the Prime Minister has slipped to a new low of negative 12 percentage points, the Opposition Leader has also gone into "negative" satisfaction for the first time in his leadership.
In the past two weeks, which includes Mr Abbott's budget reply, satisfaction with the way he is doing his job has fallen from 45 per cent to 42 per cent and dissatisfaction has risen from 43 to 45 per cent - a "negative satisfaction" rate of three points.
With a fall in Mr Rudd's standing as preferred prime minister from 50 per cent to 49 per cent, the first time he's gone below 50 per cent, and a one-point rise in Mr Abbott's standing as better prime minister from 32 to 33 per cent, Mr Abbott is now the closest to Mr Rudd as preferred prime minister since the 2007 election.
The real change in leadership support has been towards Julia Gillard, the Deputy Prime Minister and Education and Workplace Relations Minister, who has cut Mr Rudd's lead over her as preferred Labor leader from 25 points just three months ago to only five percentage points last weekend.
Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard did a deal in 2006 to remove Kim Beazley as Labor leader and replace him and his deputy, Jenny Macklin, with the team of Mr Rudd as Leader of the Opposition and Ms Gillard as his deputy.
Mr Rudd defeated Mr Beazley and Ms Gillard was elected unopposed in December 2006. In February, a Newspoll survey showed Mr Rudd with a commanding 25-point lead over Ms Gillard as the preferred Labor leader - 57 per cent to his deputy's 32 per cent.
Last weekend Mr Rudd's lead dropped to just five percentage points, 45 to 40 per cent, in a spectacular turnaround, and the closest Ms Gillard has ever come to Mr Rudd's standing.
Labor's most successful prime minister, Bob Hawke, last week floated the idea of Ms Gillard taking over from Mr Rudd as leader before the election because the polls were breaking his heart.
In the weeks after the decision to dump the emissions trading scheme, Mr Rudd's personal standing with voters plummeted, with the Prime Minister conceding he was taking a "whacking" in the polls because of personal failures, broken promises and failure to deliver on promises.
Two weeks ago, Mr Rudd's personal satisfaction plunged 11 points to just 39 per cent, and dissatisfaction rose nine points to 50 per cent.
In the latest Newspoll, Mr Rudd's satisfaction is unchanged at 39 per cent, and his dissatisfaction has risen to a new high of 51 per cent.
In the past two weeks, Mr Rudd has campaigned around the country for a new 40 per cent resource super-profits tax on mining companies and fiscal conservatism in the budget.
Meanwhile Mr Abbott has declared the super-profits tax will "kill the recovery" and has vowed to fight it in opposition and rescind it in government, if elected.
Mr Swan said he was surprised at some of the "extreme comments" coming from mining executives about the new tax, but signalled there was room to move on the issues of retrospectivity of the tax and the definition of super profit.
"We are committed to a 40 per cent rate. I have said, and we said on the day we launched the independent tax review, that we would be genuine in our consultation and discussion with the mining industry," Mr Swan said.
"We said there would be generous transitional provisions, and we would discuss all of the matters and issues they had with the tax in detail, through the consultation process."
Mr Abbott continued to campaign against the tax, declaring: "This is the central issue of the budget, and it should be the central issue of the campaign and that's Labor's great big new tax on mining, because it is the triple whammy tax."
