SYDNEY'S property values would plummet, wages would drop, and the city
would become a slum if Prime Minister Julia Gillard freezes the city's
population, a new report warns.
A new report to be released today by economists Macroplan Australia
slams a proposal to cap population growth, warning it would drive
workers out of the city, pushing down the average wage by $5000, and
sending property prices on a downward spiral.
Report author Jason Anderson urges Ms Gillard, who ran her election
platform opposing a big Australia and ordered a new taskforce to
create the nation's first population plan, to abandon the scheme.
Capping Sydney's population growth would slash its workforce while
retiree numbers boom, causing an economic slump.
"These forces would mean that there is a gradual decrease in average
household incomes. A lower income level would filter into the
residential property market," Mr Anderson said.
A poorer population could not pay big city property prices, forcing
home values to drop 18.3 per cent in Sydney in the first 10 years of
the freeze, it said.
Workers would flee and within five years of a cap, Sydney would lose
28,000 people a year.
The steep population drop would "lead to abundant, cheap housing which
can end up acting as a magnet for households in social distress", the
report said.
It cited US cities that were left empty ghost towns after population
loss, including Detroit and Pittsburght that are now in ruin with
empty shops and abandoned houses, while suffering more crime and
unemployment.
The report also slams Bob Carr's declaration that Sydney was full in
the 2000s, blaming that policy for falling levels of home ownership,
increased congestion, not enough homes near jobs, and insufficient
retail causing "shopping centres to strain under the weight of
people."
Instead the report, funded by developer lobbyist Urban Taskforce,
suggests investing in linking smaller cities such as Wollongong and
Newcastle to Sydney with upgraded roads and trains.
Taskforce chief executive Aaron Gadiel said cities would suffer
enormously if the Federal Government shut down population growth.
"It could - if it wanted to - prevent new home construction, restrict
new infrastructure investment or stop immigrant settlement," he said.
"We don't see a US-style collapse in housing unless the government
deliberately uses population policy to engineer one."
Sustainability Minister Tony Burke said the focus of the Sustainable
Population Strategy was on the distribution of population across
Australia rather than "setting arbitrary targets".
"Much of the population growth which has been happening in recent
years has been people moving from other parts of Australia to the
major cities," he said.
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